Economic Turmoil
It’s Saturday afternoon, and I have not written a post for the Economic Journal in a week. I have been thinking about the economy, but my thoughts have mostly been on the lives lost in Iran on both sides, and on all those who have been put in harm’s way. The economic costs pale in comparison to human life, which can never be brought back.
I can only think of one war the United States truly tried to avoid but could not, and that was the war my father fought in during World War II. I am not a historian, but I believe there were others we could have stayed out of. I hope this war ends soon and that people everywhere can be safe again. The same is true for other conflicts that seem to have no end in sight.
Economies around the world are on the brink of recession if the Strait of Hormuz is not reopened and the war continues. Oil prices, which fuel economies in so many ways—from getting goods to market to getting people to work—have risen in a way we have not seen in quite some time. Reserves have been tapped, but that is not enough to stop the hemorrhaging of consumers’ wallets.
The U.S. economy was already in a fragile position before the war began. Job growth was weak, inflation remained too high, and GDP came in below expectations. This conflict did not create those problems, but it has made them harder to ignore and far more difficult to solve.
At some point, those with the power to start conflicts must also carry the responsibility to end them. De-escalation is not weakness—it is leadership. Reopening critical trade routes, stabilizing energy markets, and restoring confidence should be the immediate priority.
Repairing what has been broken will take more than policy—it will take intent. That means rebuilding trust with allies, reducing uncertainty for businesses, and focusing on practical steps that lower costs for everyday people. Energy stability, clear economic direction, and steady leadership can begin to heal both markets and the broader global outlook.
The costs are already too high. The only question now is how quickly we choose a better path forward.
